Are You Not Being Entertained? This Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring
One of the biggest stories of England's top flight season so far is the drop of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way sides are netting increasingly from set-pieces as an alternative.
Looking at goal sources to the initial 11 matches last season, we note 39 fewer goals in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 less in total.
Considering the broader view, shot attempts clubs are making reveal an incredible drop of 370 in open-play than at this stage last time out.
Even with the notable jump in set-piece goals, we've actually seen a mere two extra attempts produced from these situations excluding spot-kicks, indicating how effective clubs have been at discovering methods to net from set-pieces.
Scoring Rates Tell a Story
The 301 goals notched in 110 matches up to now works out at 2.74 scores each match, if maintained for the whole season might be the least for since 2020-21, back in 2020-21 (2.69 per game).
But just 196 goals coming in open play equates to 1.78 each match and is on course to be the lowest for since 2009-10, since 2009-10 (1.76).
The 2009-10 season additionally represents the unique EPL season to see scoring more often from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 average).
What Clubs Bear the Most Responsibility?
Regarding scoring from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced the most significant decrease, registering only four in 11 matches, 10 fewer than at this stage last season.
Excluding Wolverhampton, the Premier League's fall in open play goals is very much a London thing, with five of the capital's seven sides recording at least five fewer goals from open play than the prior season.
To be fair, this is mainly because them netting many goals at the beginning of the previous campaign instead of them having difficulty to score in open play this season.
At the same time City have seen the largest rise, with all but one of the 23 they've scored to date originating in open-play.
Set-Play Proficiency
Looking at newly promoted sides with the teams that went down they took the place of. Sunderland the Black Cats have scored an additional three goals in open-play than the Saints managed in matchday 11 en route to the drop last season.
Regarding scoring from set-plays (aside from penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have recorded the most significant jump, with both sides replacing the five fewer scores that they've produced in open play with an equal amount from set-pieces.
Man United have recorded twice as many scores from set-pieces as they managed in the first 11 matches the previous campaign prior to the manager took charge, while the Black Cats additionally are more successful at converting than the similar-colored team they superseded.
Man City don't seem to have got the message about increasing scoring from set-pieces, as they've netted three fewer than last season, like Forest, though that might be down to the tactical shift they're working to install.
League-Wide Trends
Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – represent the current campaign's top trend-setters by scoring fewer scores from open play and increased from set-pieces, while Manchester City are the unique club to go against the grain up to now by performing the complete reverse.
It will be interesting to watch if clubs persist to rely so heavily on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they regain their overall inventiveness and start scoring more goals in open play also.