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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the top if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.